MUNICH, Germany Sales of semiconductors in 2007 hit a new record of $255.6 billion, up 3.2 percent on the previous year and the sixth consecutive annual rise in chip sales, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA).
However, not all analysts are optimistic for the immediate future.
The latest SIA figures with record sales draw an image of an out-and-out healthy industry: After six consecutive years of rising sales, the major demand drivers for semiconductors such as PCs, mobile handsets and consumer electronics still remained strong, explained SIA president George Scalise. Personal computers, which account for 40 percent of all semiconductor consumption, exhibited a growth of 20 percent by units, the mobile computer segment even added 32 percent. Cellphone unit shipments grew by 20 percent to nearly 1.2 billion units.
"Traditional consumer electronics are also experiencing a healthy growth," Scalise said. According to SIA, MP3 players and similar devices added 20 percent in terms of units, as did digital cameras. LCT TV units grew by more than 50 percent.
Yet, Carnegie Security Research analyst Bruce Diesen called the December chip sales growth of only 1.4 percent disappointing, stressing the fact that complete segments of consumer electronics goods came in below expectations. "iPods, digital cameras, Nintendo wiis and LCD TVs were all weaker than expected," Diesen wrote in a report. He also pointed out that overcapacities will continue to suppress prices and lowered his 2008 growth estimate from 6 to 4 percent by value. Unit figures will grow 11 percent, Diesen believes.
Also the SIA sees a decline in December sales against the preceding month; the group reports a decrease of 3.6 percent to $22.3 billion, caused by "normal seasonal patterns". Compared with December 2006 however, sales still climbed 2.5 percent by value, SIA says.
The DRAM market experienced dramatic movements. While bit shipments nearly doubled, the prices declined "precipitously" throughout the year, SIA reports. ASP erosion of almost 40 percent led to a revenue decline of 7.4 percent. Almost equally dramatic was the evolution in the NAND market: While ASPs declined 13.7 percent, unit shipments grew 46 percent, resulting in an overall revenue growth of 26 percent.
In terms of geography, Japan grew fastest with 11.1 percent while the Asia Pacific region only added 2 percent. Europe barely maintained in positive territory with a plus of 1 percent while sales in the Americas declined 3.9 percent. The figures are based on a three-month moving average.
For the year ahead, the SIA expects the industry to grow by 7.7 percent, significantly more that Carnegie analyst Diesen.